Moscow's role in failed Georgia coup - SIR 14 September 2006

Amid rising tensions between Russia and Georgia, the arrest last week of 29 people during the investigation of an alleged plot to launch a coup d’etat against the Georgian government has highlighted the Kremlin’s continuing interference in the independent states that broke free from the old Soviet Union. In fact, according to Strategic Intelligence Review’s intelligence sources in the region, the current crackdown follows several years of destabilising activities by one of Moscow’s proxies: Lt-Gen Igor Giorgadze, former head of Georgia’s intelligence service.

Our analysis of the situation includes the following key points:

· The Kremlin remains determined to destabilise the pro-Western government of Georgia

· For the past decade Moscow has supported and financed pro-Russian Georgian political parties, but there is mounting evidence that this is being stepped up as tensions between Russia and Georgia escalate

· As Russia’s proxy, Giorgadze has recently stepped up his demands for a second, pro-Russian revolution aimed at ousting the present Western-orientated administration of President Mikhail Saakashvili

· Russia’s recent embargo on the importation of Georgian wine and mineral water is adding economic pressure

· Having succeeded in manoeuvring a pro-Russian candidate into the premiership of Ukraine, Moscow has longer-term ambitions to reverse Georgia’s current pro-Western, pro-NATO policies.

A former Soviet KGB colonel, in 1993 Giorgadze was appointed as minister of state security and head of the State Security Service in post-Soviet Georgia. However, while in power, he sought to rebuild close links with his Russian intelligence and security counterparts.

In August 1995 Giorgadze was implicated in what was alleged to be a Russian-backed plot to assassinate the then president of Georgia, former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze (who had himself come to power in 1992 following a coup d’etat against Georgian President Zviad Gamsakhurdia). Facing treason charges, Giorgadze fled to Russia where he has remained. He has been protected and groomed by Kremlin hardliners as a dependable pro-Moscow challenger to any Georgian administration that is determined to preserve the country’s independence.

Whilst in exile, Giorgadze formed openly pro-Russian political parties. The first, Samshoblo (the All-Georgian Patriotic Alliance), actively campaigned for the ousting of Shevardnadze, a politician who was loathed in the Kremlin because of his role in the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, Giorgadze’s cause received a major boost, and from mid-2002 onwards he and his supporters were active in undermining Shevardnadze’s administration. One of Moscow’s key charges against Shevardnadze was that the government in Tbilisi was providing shelter for Chechen separatists opposed to Moscow’s military campaign in Chechnya.

The national crisis which followed the Georgian parliamentary elections in November 2003 could have provided Giorgadze and his Russian backers with an opportunity to seize power from the embattled president, and there were fears that Moscow might even intervene in order to restore order. However, the so-called Rose Revolution which finally ousted Shevardnadze also backfired spectacularly on the Kremlin since the new government of Mikhail Saakashvili, who was elected as president in 2004, has been firmly pro-Western in its policies. Saakashvili has also incurred the Kremlin’s displeasure by his renewed efforts to deal with the Russian-backed separatist region of South Ossetia.

Clashes within the past week between Georgian police and South Ossetian separatists have followed a recent attack against an Mi-8 helicopter carrying Georgian defence minister Irakli Okruashvili after he overflew territory claimed by the separatist regime headquartered in the town of Tskhinvali. The subsequent armed clashes on the ground this week have left several dead, including three members of the rebel South Ossetian police force.

Economic pressure is also being applied. Earlier this year Moscow restricted imports of Georgian wine and mineral water citing concerns over "sanitary" quality and the alleged presence of pesticides. The Georgian government has denounced the move as being politically motivated and designed to undermine the country’s economy.

Presidential ambitions
As tensions between Moscow and Tbilisi have been rising, Giorgadze has become more vocal in his calls for the overthrow of Saakasvili’s administration. In May he called a press conference in Moscow to outline the political programme of his latest pro-Moscow vehicle, Samartlianoba (Justice Party), a movement that appears to enjoy little, if any real support in Georgia. Perhaps predictably, the key policies of his party are opposition to Georgia’s links with Nato and a call for much closer ties with Russia, including greater political and economic integration – effectively establishing a puppet regime allied to Moscow.

Meanwhile, in early July, Giorgadze gave a controversial interview to Moscow News in which he predicted another "revolution" in Georgia. When asked by the interviewer whether he had ambitions to seek the Georgian presidency, Giorgadze observed that: "I will be [president] only in the case, when such is the will of the people."

In fact, given that he is considered to be a fugitive from justice, Giorgadze has twice been blocked from trying to stand as a candidate for the presidency in the elections held in 2000 and 2004.

Russia’s sphere of influence
Moscow’s support for Giorgadze is clear from the Kremlin’s repeated rejections over the past decade of Tbilisi’s demands, backed by Interpol warrants, for the former intelligence chief’s extradition on treason charges. The Russian strategy is based on the conviction that Georgia is within Russia’s sphere of influence. Post-independence moves towards the West by both Shevardnadze and Saakashvili – particularly closer ties with Washington – are regarded as a threat to Russia’s regional interests.

Concerned over the activities of Samartlianoba, a party whose leader is wanted on charges of treason and who is calling for the overthrow of the democratically-elected government, Saakashvili has moved to neutralise Giorgadze’s supporters inside Georgia. Leaders of allied parties, including the Conservative-Monarchist Party, were also arrested. Of the 29 initially detained following last week’s police raid, 13 have so far been charged under Article 315 of the country’s criminal code – "plotting against the state and overthrowing the government". Georgian interior ministry sources have also claimed that they have uncovered evidence of a plot to bomb the main offices of the ruling United National Movement.

Commenting on the arrests, Saakashvili accused Moscow of backing the group. "Certain forces in Russia decided that this autumn is the last time when it is still possible to stop the process of Georgia’s formation," Saakashvili observed. In response, Russian presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko denied these claims. "I, of course, know of no Russian plans to overthrow the Georgian leadership." AS.