Rejection of Turkey by the EU would be "beyond disappointment" - CIR 24 June 2004

As we argued in some detail in our 11 March issue, the importance of Turkey’s European ambitions cannot be overstated. Turkey has been pursuing an unparalleled and single-minded policy of modernization and Westernization for over 80 years, since the foundation of the secular republic in 1923 by Kemal Ataturk. In 1963 it became an associate member of the European Union (or rather of the European Economic Community as it then was), and on 14 April 1987 it applied for full membership.

The EU Commission will publish its annual report on Turkey’s candidacy on 6 October, and European Union leaders will decide at their summit in December whether negotiations for membership should be opened.

As the recent European Parliament elections showed, there is considerable opposition within Europe - particularly in Germany - to Turkish membership. But in all things expectation management is important, and if the EU intends to further postpone the start of membership negotiations with Turkey, the message is not getting through.

Diplomatic sources in Ankara say that the feeling amongst Turkey’s political elite is that the EU’s decision, taken at its recent summit, that membership negotiations with Croatia will start in early 2005 means that it cannot possibly say no to Turkey in December. There is a feeling in Ankara that the EU will agree to begin talks between July and October 2005 - that is during the period of the British presidency.

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in the Netherlands last week to discuss all this with Holland’s Prime Minister Jan Peter Belkenende, who will take over the EU presidency on 1 July.

One element in Turkey’s case for membership that has been emphasized more and more recently is that Turkey can become a bridge between Islam and the Christian world, and this was argued strongly by Erdogan last week.

In the past Turkey has more often emphasized its secular Western nature; now it is saying that it can help change the Islamic world’s perception of the European Union - particularly when Ankara has assumed the office of Secretary General of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).

Speaking during his visit to Holland, Erdogan said: "We have to create an EU where civilizations meet and reconcile. If we are to eradicate terrorism, we have to achieve this goal."

He repeated the same point when opening a symposium on Turkey’s European Union adjustment programme in Ankara on Monday (21 June), saying that the EU could become "an address where civilizations meet and reconcile" and that Turkey would join the EU "as a representative of the compromise among civilizations".

This argument might persuade some waverers, but the opposition from those who see Turkey’s membership as potentially changing the whole nature of the European Union remains strong.

EU Commissioner Guenter Verheugen, for instance, said recently: "Turkey’s accession will affect and change everything in the EU" - and the feeling in European diplomatic circles is that the most powerful voices still belong to those who want to find a way of maintaining a special relationship with Turkey without actually welcoming it in as a full member.

That might be so, but the problem is that Turkey is now well beyond the point of accepting a compromise solution.

As Erdogan told a press conference in the Hague on 16 June, when asked about how Turkey would react to a failure to set a date for accession talks:

"I do not even want to consider such a negative decision because such a decision will lead to a result on Turkish people beyond disappointment. I should clearly express that Turkey has been waiting at this door for 41 years. Turkey has taken steps required by the EU acquisition more than the EU member countries. I think both the report that will be announced on 6 October and the decision that will be taken in December 2004 will take those into consideration."

Hearing this, there can be little doubt that 6 October is a make or break date for Europe’s relationship with Turkey. Joe de Courcy, Editor.