Jordan reveals its fear of Iran - CIR 16 December 2004

Last week Jordan’s King Abdullah warned US President George W Bush that Iran was interfering in the Iraqi election with a view to establishing a "Shia crescent" in the region, extending from Iraq to Lebanon. There is nothing particularly startling or new about Abdullah raising this issue. What is startling, however, is the degree of fear of Iran that has revealed itself in Jordan following the publication of the king’s remarks.

The problem for Jordan has always been that once the decision had been taken to overthrow the Sunni dictatorship in Iraq and to replace it with a democracy, the remorseless logic of numbers was always going to produce a Shia-dominated government - and a Shia-dominated government in Iraq could never be sympathetic to Jordan given Amman’s past close relationship with and support for Saddam Hussein.

But Jordan’s fear of a Shia-dominated Iraq is compounded by the close association between Iraq’s Shias and Iran, which Jordan sees as the historic enemy of the Arabs. Iran, Jordan argues, takes every opportunity it can to exploit Sunni-Shia divisions to undermine pan-Arabism and to promote Iranian interests in the Gulf states, Iraq, and Lebanon. Jordanian strategists also argue that Iran wants nuclear weapons not in order to help liberate Palestine but to increase its influence over the Arab world.

A commentary published on Monday in the Jordanian newspaper al-Rai, supporting King Abdullah’s remarks, provides an accurate reflection of the level of Jordanian fear of, and animosity towards, Iran. Amongst other things, this is what the commentary said:

* "History proves that since the battle of al-Qadisiyah (637 AD), Iran has been waging big and small wars only against the Arab nation. Despite their successive losses in these wars, Iranians have managed to sow and nurture sectarian seditions in the [Arab] homeland, particularly in the Gulf region."

* "When the US-UK aggression [against Iraq] began, Iranians, proceeding from an historical hatred and loathsome racism, headed towards Iraq to carry out various acts of looting and plundering, as well as assassinations…"

* "Whoever examines the political reality of our brothers in the Arabian Gulf realizes the dangerous Iranian role that is being played by Tehran in the region, particularly in Kuwait and Bahrain. Shia deputies in the Bahraini parliament rejected any stance by the parliament that opposes what took place and is taking place in al-Fallujah…Jordan and all the Arab brothers realize the danger that Iran posed and continues to pose towards their Arabism and their homelands."

* "Since Iranians have a long history of stirring seditions inside the Arab homeland, cautioning in a loud and clear voice against the Iranian role in Iraq is the individual duty of each Arab, each Sunni Muslim and each Shia Muslim who refuses to wager his Arabism and sell it to anyone who harbours deeply rooted hatred."

* "It is noteworthy that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons means an Iranian nuclear capability to strike us, for the Iranians have no enemy but the Arabs. The notion that Iran is preparing its forces to liberate Palestine is a ridiculous illusion. The utmost that the Iranian regime has offered the Palestinian question is the building that was occupied by the Israeli embassy and is now occupied by the Palestinian embassy!"

The commentary concluded: "The problem with Iran is that it does not deal with us as Muslims whose one religion ought to unify them and close their ranks. Iran’s problem will remain that we are Arabs and they are Persians…All cards are now revealed and the Iranian regime has lost its balance and proceeded towards overt and covert alliances that seek to divide up Iraq, destroy it, slaughter Iraqis, and encourage sedition and internecine fighting…"

King Abdullah has not been as outspoken as this, and foreign-ministry officials have since tried to play down the significance of his anti-Iranian remarks. But there can be no hiding Jordanian (and wider Arab) fears of Iran now that Iraq is no longer the bulwark against Iranian influence that it was under Saddam Hussein.

Iran’s reading of its own position is also interesting. It naturally sees developments in Iraq as positive. However, that is only part of the overall position, and it remains concerned about a number of factors, including of course the US military presence to both its east and west coupled with increasing US pressure over its nuclear programme.

It is also concerned about the lack of substantive Russian support in the row over its nuclear programme. However there are signs that it is trying to compensate for this by strengthening its ties with Beijing and by continuing to develop ties with lesser states that are opposed to the US – including Venezuela and Cuba in the Western Hemisphere.

On the face of it, resurgence of interest in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process might also look like a negative for Iran, particularly as it appears to be supported strongly by Egypt. Relations between Iran and Egypt had been improving for a while, but they have now suffered a double setback as a result of Egypt’s apparent rapprochement with Israel and the eruption of a spy scandal. (An Egyptian citizen is under investigation for having spied for Iran – or rather for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which in turn is accused of recruiting and training extremists in Hezbollah camps in Lebanon and of plotting terrorist attacks in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Sources in Cairo say that relations between Iran and Egypt are now "back to square one".)

Interestingly, however, sources in the region say that Iranian officials are actually not overly concerned about the new push towards a Palestinian-Israeli peace settlement. At least some Iranian officials take the view that renewed US and European interest in the peace process will absorb a huge amount of Western diplomatic energy and divert attention away from Iran.

In the meantime, Iran will continue to extend its influence in Iraq, which in turn should further increase its influence in Syria and Lebanon. King Abdullah’s fears are by no means misplaced - and given that the demographic reality of Iraq cannot be changed or sidestepped (the US cannot support a return to Sunni dictatorship), these fears will not subside until the counter-revolution finally prevails in Iran. Joe de Courcy, Editor.