Japan tells Russia to look east - CIR 31 March 2005

On Monday Japan’s Defence Agency think tank - the National Institute for Defence Studies - published its 2005 East Asian Security Review. Not surprisingly, most of the general media coverage of the review has concentrated on the frank remarks it contains about China. In addition to this, however, we were also struck by some little noticed remarks about Russia.

On China, the review notes that Beijing is accelerating its military modernization as it searches "for an effective policy to deal with the strengthening Taiwanese identity and moves for independence". And it says: "It is believed that China’s foreign policies and Taiwan policy under the administration of President Hu Jintao will be increasingly influenced by public opinion and nationalism."

The review says that it is "of particular note" that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) "has been frequently conducting offensive ‘joint (Yitihua)’ training with a focus on the use of armed forces against Taiwan and blocking the US military intervention".

On the wider security environment in East Asia, the review points with concern to possible maritime terrorism in key shipping routes; lack of effective cooperation in preventing traffic in weapons of mass destruction (it says "Japan and Singapore are just about the only countries in the region that actively participate in the [Proliferation Security Initiative]"); and to the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by North Korea. It also seems to have some concern about the possible effect on East Asia of the US’s review of its conventional military posture.

As far as Japan’s own posture is concerned, the review is frank about its need to build up its defensive capabilities to "effectively cope with the new threats and diverse situations that are likely to affect peace and security". It also says that Japan will be increasingly active in developing cooperative security efforts in East Asia, in part because "Asean still remains wary of China’s influence on its future, and expects Japan to play a leadership role as a restraining factor vis-à-vis the rapidly growing presence of China in this region."

However, as far as Japan’s defensive capabilities are concerned, the review notes with concern "the increasing weight of restraining factors - such as the tightening fiscal conditions and the decreasing youth population" which could adversely affect Japan’s ability to create a "multi-functional, flexible, and effective" force.

Overall, as far as East Asia is concerned, the report concludes: "The security environment in East Asia as it stands now gives no ground for optimism". Given the overwhelming importance of Asia in the world economy today, this is a conclusion that cannot be ignored. We happen to think that the terrorist threat to the maritime trade routes is probably exaggerated, and we have long argued that the threat from Pyongyang is overstated given that regime survival is its main concern, but on the question of China and Taiwan we are in full agreement with Tokyo’s analysis.

But what about the aside on Russia that caught our attention? There are three aspects to it. First, Tokyo is not shy of agreeing with President Vladimir Putin’s critics in the West who say that his "authoritarian bent is mounting".

Secondly, while pointing out that this "authoritarian bent" is not having any adverse effect on his popularity (indeed, the reverse is true), the review postulates that even "a slight fumble" in dealing with the Chechen problem "could heavily cost Putin’s popularity" and the issue has thus become "the biggest Achilles’ heel of the Putin administration".

The third point about Russia that caught our attention was the assertion that given "the worsening strategic environment on its western front…Russia needs to strengthen its economic relations the Asian neighbours in order to recover its national strength". One of these "Asian neighbours", of course, is Japan, and the review notes with approval that Russia "has adopted the Pacific route, advocated by Japan, for its East Siberian oil pipeline project". Coincidentally, also on Monday (the day the review was published) Japan’s Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that he hoped Putin would visit Japan "as soon as possible" following a visit in May by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Talk of a major Russia-Japan rapprochement has been a recurring theme since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it has equally regularly stumbled over an unresolved territorial dispute dating back to World War II. However, another effort is being made to find a resolution to the dispute, and this looks like one to watch as the year develops. Joe de Courcy, Editor.